If You Bet on College Football, You Probably Lost
12 Nov, 2016
There goes everything you thought you knew about the College Football Playoff picture after No. 2 Clemson, No. 3 Michigan and No. 4 Washington all fell in Week 11 to join the one-loss club.
Here’s the crazy part: All three of them still control their own destiny in their conference races and will win their respective leagues if they win out. So, in spite of all of that chaos, it’s quite possible there’s not a lot of movement in the selection committee’s top six this week.
It’s time to press the reset button.
Here’s a fresh look at the playoff picture in each Power 5 conference:
Clemson: The Tigers will still clinch the Atlantic Division with a win at Wake Forest next week but can’t afford another loss and have to beat rival South Carolina in the regular-season finale. If the committee is consistent with its reasoning from last week, the Tigers shouldn’t drop below Louisville this week because of their head-to-head win over the Cardinals. Last week, Texas A&M didn’t drop below Auburn specifically because of the Aggies’ head-to-head win.
Louisville: The Cardinals were arguably the team that was helped the most, because at the very least, they will now be compared to more one-loss teams instead of undefeated teams. But Louisville still needs help. It can’t win its conference championship unless Clemson loses to Wake Forest since the Cardinals were beaten head-to-head by Clemson. Plus, the Cardinals were trailing the Buckeyes in each of the committee’s first two rankings. With some more chaos, though, Louisville can still cling to the hope of having two ACC teams in the top four.
Oklahoma: The No. 11 Sooners are still undefeated in conference play but have been weighed down by nonconference losses to Ohio State and Houston. A bigger problem is the gap between them and No. 7 Wisconsin, which is currently the committee’s highest-ranked two-loss team.
West Virginia: Don’t count out a one-loss Big 12 champ, but the Mountaineers have a strength-of-schedule problem. When asked about WVU last week, selection committee chair Kirby Hocutt said: “At this point in the season, they’ve only played one game against a ranked College Football Playoff opponent, and that was to Oklahoma State, who’s ranked No. 13 in this week’s rankings, and West Virginia lost that game. West Virginia just needs to continue to win and build their résumé in the eyes of the committee.”
Michigan: If Michigan wins out, it will win the Big Ten East because the Wolverines own the head-to-head tiebreaker over Penn State. Michigan plays Indiana at home before the much-anticipated Nov. 26 game at Ohio State.
Penn State: Penn State has to win out and have Michigan lose again. If Penn State wins out, Ohio State cannot win the East division. If Penn State wins the division, the Big Ten is guaranteed to have a two-loss conference champion, as Wisconsin is the leader in the West, and it’s possible the league champ could be left out entirely.
Ohio State: The Buckeyes need Penn State to lose again, an unlikely scenario considering the Nittany Lions’ final two opponents are Michigan State and Rutgers. There is the possibility, though, that with more chaos, Ohio State sneaks into the top four without playing in the conference championship game as long as it wins out and beats Michigan.
Wisconsin: The Badgers have made the case as the nation’s best two-loss team with a chance at the playoff because they are currently ranked ahead of Oklahoma and will have another shot at a ranked opponent in the Big Ten title game assuming they win the West.
Washington: If the Huskies win out, they will win the North and play in the Pac-12 championship game with a chance to keep their playoff hopes alive, but this is where their strength of schedule could be a serious dagger. Washington’s nonconference schedule ranks No. 128 according to ESPN’s Football Power Index, with wins against Rutgers, Idaho and Portland State. That’s Baylor-esque, but the Huskies can still beat two more ranked opponents if they beat Washington State in the Apple Cup, and then the South winner (probably Colorado or Utah) in the conference championship game.
Colorado: Don’t discount a two-loss Colorado if it beats three straight ranked opponents and wins the Pac-12 title, considering its two losses have been to ranked opponents Michigan and USC. The Buffs finish the season against ranked teams Washington State and Utah, and could upend a top-10 Washington team in the Pac-12 championship game. Utah could still win the Pac-12 South, but it has yet to beat a ranked opponent, and the trip to Colorado is the only opportunity remaining in the regular season against a ranked team.
Alabama: The Tide clinched the SEC West and is now the only undefeated Power 5 team remaining. Even with a loss to Auburn in the Iron Bowl, Alabama will still play in the SEC championship game and is the league’s lone legitimate contender. Auburn was eliminated from the SEC race the playoff conversation with its loss to Georgia.
ESPN
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